Sentul City: FY12 result booking Rp221bn net profit above ours (108.3%) and in-line with consensus’ estimates (100.1%)
BKSL has reported a FY12 net profit of Rp221bn which is above our estimates (108.3%) and in-line with consensus’ (100.1%). On a yearly basis, margin shows improvement from the gross level to the net margin level.
Lower booking of sales in Q4 was a result of lower number of sales despite the high level margins of the products that BKSL sold. BKSL showed a 68% yoy increase in opex as a result of higher A&P spending. Below the operating line, BKSL was supported by lower other expenses due to provisions which was booked in 2011.
BKSL has a bright 2013 in our view with exciting new and existing projects. Marketing sales booking from last year of Rp739bn from Sentul City and Rp457bn from Sentul Nirwana will most likely boost the company’s revenue this year. The company’s recently opened Pasar Apung (Floating Market) is not to be overlook as BKSL reported that the riverside dine-in spot has been a huge success. New exciting deals and projects coming include HERO’s next generation hypermart in Sentul City, the new Serpong Natura project, Pertamina Hospital, the anticipated Jungleland.
We believe that BKSL has a clear vision of its unique township which continue to offers creative and appealing products and facilities, which leads to continue to like the company. Sentul City’s ASP of approximately Rp5mn/sqm still has much upside in our view due to the unique green hillside location and improving facilities. The company expects ASP to be around Rp6.5mn/sqm this year. Re-iterate BUY on BKSL which is trading at 27.3x FY13F PE vs. industry of 16.4x.
Showing posts with label FY12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FY12. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Supra Boga Lestari results within expectation
Supra Boga Lestari: FY12 results within expectation (RANC, Rp880, Buy, TP: Rp1,000)
FY12 NPAT came at Rp36bn (+66.2%yoy), forming 95% of our estimate and 100% of consensus. Net sales and operating profit were broadly aligned with our forecasts, both with 101% realization. We continue to maintain our Buy call and Rp1,000 TP.
FY12 sales grew 21.0 %yoy to Rp1,077bn, with 7% SSSG and 3 new stores opening (2 Farmers Market and 1 Farmers Market) for a total selling space of 6,300sqm (20.3% of existing). Gross margin were relatively unchanged, while operating margin declined from 4.1% to 3.4% as G&A expenses rose 31.0%yoy mostly on rising salaries & allowances. Dissecting 9M12, 4Q12 NPAT came at Rp9bn, up 86.8%yoy or 4.7%qoq. Operating and net margins were weaker on YoY basis, but stronger QoQ.
At pretax profit level, RANC nevertheless booked a solid 64.7%yoy growth to Rp46bn, helped by other income that grew 138.9%yoy. This is also within our expectation, on the back of strong growth of suppliers’ income. As we had written before, the hiring of new COO in mid-2011 (ex-HERO) enabled RANC to obtain more suppliers’ income in the form of listing fees and event promotions.
For 2013, RANC would open 2 Ranch Market and 3 Farmers Market, adding a total selling space of 13,500sqm. The number of new stores opening is in-line with our assumption, but the total selling space addition is 23% higher than our 10,975sqm assumption. SSSG is guided for at least 8%, lower than our 10% assumption. As reported by the local newspaper recently, RANC guided for Rp48bn NPAT this year, aligned with our current Rp50bn estimate. We will review our financial model to incorporate FY12 results. RANC currently trades at 27.4x FY13F PE.
FY12 NPAT came at Rp36bn (+66.2%yoy), forming 95% of our estimate and 100% of consensus. Net sales and operating profit were broadly aligned with our forecasts, both with 101% realization. We continue to maintain our Buy call and Rp1,000 TP.
FY12 sales grew 21.0 %yoy to Rp1,077bn, with 7% SSSG and 3 new stores opening (2 Farmers Market and 1 Farmers Market) for a total selling space of 6,300sqm (20.3% of existing). Gross margin were relatively unchanged, while operating margin declined from 4.1% to 3.4% as G&A expenses rose 31.0%yoy mostly on rising salaries & allowances. Dissecting 9M12, 4Q12 NPAT came at Rp9bn, up 86.8%yoy or 4.7%qoq. Operating and net margins were weaker on YoY basis, but stronger QoQ.
At pretax profit level, RANC nevertheless booked a solid 64.7%yoy growth to Rp46bn, helped by other income that grew 138.9%yoy. This is also within our expectation, on the back of strong growth of suppliers’ income. As we had written before, the hiring of new COO in mid-2011 (ex-HERO) enabled RANC to obtain more suppliers’ income in the form of listing fees and event promotions.
For 2013, RANC would open 2 Ranch Market and 3 Farmers Market, adding a total selling space of 13,500sqm. The number of new stores opening is in-line with our assumption, but the total selling space addition is 23% higher than our 10,975sqm assumption. SSSG is guided for at least 8%, lower than our 10% assumption. As reported by the local newspaper recently, RANC guided for Rp48bn NPAT this year, aligned with our current Rp50bn estimate. We will review our financial model to incorporate FY12 results. RANC currently trades at 27.4x FY13F PE.
Indomobil Sukses Internasional weak but expected
Indomobil Sukses Internasional: FY12 weak, but expected (IMAS, Buy, Rp5,500, TP: Rp6,150)
We reduced our TP on IMAS from Rp6,550 to Rp6,150 as we incorporate weak FY12 results into our model. We retained 80k units of Nissan sales assumption this year, but lowered operating margins to factor in dealerships roll-out. Weak 4Q12 was largely anticipated, and does not really make a difference given the tender offer price floor protection. We retain our BUY call. Downside is protected, while upside could be rewarding, in our view. Post-acquisition, Salim should also have more incentives to grow IMAS.
Weak FY12 results were partially driven by Nissan dealership expansion that was not supported by pick-up in sales volume. This year, Nissan would continue to expand its dealership by opening 20-25 outlets from the existing 85 outlets. The 24-29% growth in dealership number would lead to higher cost/sales, as we only expect a 19% volume growth for Nissan. We slashed FY13F operating margin assumption to 3.8% from 4.1%, but still expecting an improvement YoY.
While it is painful in the short term, expanding dealership network is the key to long-term success in the Indonesian market. It enables Nissan to strengthen its secondary market, a key to win both consumer and corporate customers. The decision to continuously expand, despite declining market share, is also the right one, paving the way for the launching of Datsun LCGC in early 2014.
We reduced our TP on IMAS from Rp6,550 to Rp6,150 as we incorporate weak FY12 results into our model. We retained 80k units of Nissan sales assumption this year, but lowered operating margins to factor in dealerships roll-out. Weak 4Q12 was largely anticipated, and does not really make a difference given the tender offer price floor protection. We retain our BUY call. Downside is protected, while upside could be rewarding, in our view. Post-acquisition, Salim should also have more incentives to grow IMAS.
Weak FY12 results were partially driven by Nissan dealership expansion that was not supported by pick-up in sales volume. This year, Nissan would continue to expand its dealership by opening 20-25 outlets from the existing 85 outlets. The 24-29% growth in dealership number would lead to higher cost/sales, as we only expect a 19% volume growth for Nissan. We slashed FY13F operating margin assumption to 3.8% from 4.1%, but still expecting an improvement YoY.
While it is painful in the short term, expanding dealership network is the key to long-term success in the Indonesian market. It enables Nissan to strengthen its secondary market, a key to win both consumer and corporate customers. The decision to continuously expand, despite declining market share, is also the right one, paving the way for the launching of Datsun LCGC in early 2014.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Vale Indonesia Robust 4Q12 earnings
Vale Indonesia: Robust 4Q12 earnings, FY12 results below consensus (Under review)
- FY12 results below consensus – INCO reported FY12 net profit of US$67mn (-80%YoY), about 20% below consensus, as operating profit down 75% YoY to US$115mn with margin compressed to 12% from 37% in FY11, mostly due to lower ASP which dropped 26%YoY to US$13,552/t and higher project development cost (related to Bahodopi development, project CEPAT and operational maintenance improvement program) which up by 32%YoY to US$39mn and 3 times higher finance cost of US$15.5mn as the grace period of the loan facility end in late 2011. FY12 production volume grew modestly by 6% to 70,717 tons.
- All-time high production in 4Q12 with excellent efficient operations boost bottom line – Robust 4Q12 bottom line of US$39mn (+178%YoY, +65%YoY) as operating margin improved to 20% vs 10% in 4Q11 or 15% in 3Q12. All-time high production volume in 4Q12 at 21,306tons (+55% YoY, +4%QoQ) led to stronger economic of scale with excellence efficient operation in fuel consumption supported by higher power contribution from hydropower (see exhibit 3). 4Q12 ASP was US$13,176/t (-12%YoY, +5%QoQ).
2013 Outlook – Annualizing 4Q12 production capacity would come out at 84k tons full-year capacity. However, due to seasonality and ongoing maintenance program, Company only expects 10% growth volume or about 77k tons production in 2013. Further details for 2013 business plan & guidance will be discussed with the BoD in the conference call on Monday, 4 March 2013 at 4pm Jkt time.
Currently, we’re reviewing our rating and forecasts on the counter. With consensus top line of US$1,120mn, it implies ASP of US$14.5k/ton which is 12% lower than current LME nickel spot price of US$16.5/t and expecting 24% operating margin. Based on consensus INCO trades at 14.7x P/E for 2013.
Related article: Vale Indonesia: Key takeaways from conference call with the BoD
Friday, March 8, 2013
Astra International 4Q12 in-line
Astra International: 4Q12 in-line, final DPS proposed at Rp150 (ASII, Neutral, Rp7,950, TP: Rp7,900)
ASII reported FY12 NPAT at Rp19,421bn (+9.2%yoy), in-line with our (100%) and consensus (101%) expectation. Stripping-out the Rp215bn FX losses, core profit came at Rp19,636bn (+11.1%yoy), also in-line with our core profit estimates of Rp19,478bn (101%).Sales (+15.7%yoy), gross profit (+13.0%yoy), operating profit (+11.4%yoy), and pretax profit (+8.2%yoy) also met our and consensus estimates. Margins slightly declined compared to FY11, which happened almost across the board with the exception of 4W division, thanks to its strong volume growth.
Contribution of automotive NPAT edged up to 48.8% from 46.5% in FY11, posting a 14.6%yoy growth led by the 4W (+34.2%yoy) and components (+5.2%yoy), offsetting the weak 2W (-11.2%yoy). Contribution from infrastructures and IT, albeit small, also edged up to 3.5% and 0.7% from 3.4% and 0.6%, respectively in 2011.
4Q12 NPAT came at Rp4,750bn (-4.9%qoq; +9.3%yoy), translated down from the top as margins were relatively unchanged. Weak QoQ performance is expected, as auto sales volumes are seasonally weaker leading to year-end. Notable pick-up, nevertheless, was seen in the net margin of the auto components subsidiary that led to a 20.0%qoq growth in its NPAT.
ASII will hold an analyst meeting on Monday. We currently have a Neutral call on ASII. The stock now trades at 14.5x FY13F PE. Management would propose a final DPS of Rp150 (1.8% yield) at the upcoming AGM in April, bringing total DPS of Rp216 including the interim paid in November 2012.
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